It seems disingenuous to call the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race a wild card. Lately, the majority of weekends have been unpredictable affairs from the road courses of Sonoma Raceway and Watkins Glen International, the restrictor-plate Daytona International Speedway, the reconfigured/repaved Kentucky Speedway, and the fog-shortened Pocono Raceway Pennsylvania 400. New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway are the closest fantasy owners have had to a predictable affair.

There is no reason to think Bristol Motor Speedway is going to be any different. Short tracks are inherently unpredictable because heavy traffic and 20 second laps are hard to navigate.

With four races remaining, there is still the potential for a Chase field filled with winners.

It is unlikely that all four races will go to unique winners, but that will not change to dynamic among the favorable four. Kyle Larson’s spin at the Glen dropped him 30 points behind Jamie McMurray, but if there is another winner and just three points’ producers get locked in, only 12 markers separate Ryan Newman from Jamie McMurray. And since the total number of winners will not be known until Richmond, no one is safe.

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Bristol is about determination. Drivers have to muscle their way around the track and bully their way through traffic. This is a take-no-prisoner kind of course and Newman is a give-no-quarter kind of driver. If he does not wind up on the lead lap and in the top 10, it will not be because of a lack of effort. One would think that kind of statement should be generic for all NASCAR drivers—but it isn’t. Newman is a throwback and this is a classic track.

The short tracks are often dominated by sleepers and dark horses. It is not always about the stats, but looking between the lines, which is why this week’s preview is important.

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