Restrictor-plate Superspeedways

Hellmann’s 500

Dan Beaver Restrictor-plate Superspeedways, Talladega SuperSpeedway Leave a comment

Simple math reveals that only 12.5 percent of this week’s field can earn a top-five; 37.5 percent will finish in the top 15 so the competition for those spots in intense.

TALLADEGA, AL - MAY 01: Chase Elliott, driver of the #24 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, leads the field during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on May 1, 2016 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

(Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Drivers will do almost anything to earn one of those positions. That includes trying to occupy the same piece of real estate as their competitor. Instead of mathematic, physics applies here: no two objects can occupy the same place at the same time. When they try, something catastrophic occurs. Since practically every car running on the track is in one big pack, the likelihood of an accident impacting one’s entire roster is in the 90 percent range.

On several occasions, an accident at Talladega has affected 50 percent or more of the active field, which means that unless one is incredibly lucky, half of one’s fantasy roster is going to sustain some damage.

There are steps that can be taken to minimize the destruction once a “Big One” erupts. Some drivers and teams have a knack for keeping their cars running with dented sheet metal, but races at Talladega and Daytona are really about luck and very little else.

These fantasy contests employ a strategy that does not get used elsewhere. Since a mid-priced driver has just as much likelihood of scoring the victory as the most expensive driver in the game, it does not make any sense to spend freely at the top. Kevin Harvick has one win at Talladega, but then again so does David Ragan.

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Coke Zero 400

Dan Beaver Daytona International Speedway, Restrictor-plate Superspeedways Leave a comment

2473_DB_DFS_skyscraper

Plate races are rarely more than lotteries, but fantasy owners now have the added stress of buying their ticket in a high-crime area where muggers lurk outside a poorly-lit convenience store.

The Coke Zero 400 is the final restrictor-plate, superspeedway regular season race. For many of the drivers outside the top 16 in points it represents the best opportunity to qualify for the playoffs, so at a conservative estimate 38 percent of the field will be hanging out the rear end of their cars to try and get to the checkers first.

Taking chances is always dangerous. Driving a loose car can be critical and it bit a driver with the undeniable skill of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in both plate races this year. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Trevor Bayne, and Danica Patrick have far less in their personal arsenal and they are going to be in the middle of a frantic pack along with all of the relevant racers.

Every desperate driver will have had six days to fantasize about Stewart’s’ success. They will have visualized their duties in promoting the Chase, basked in the coming adulation of the crowd, spent the bonus checks that undoubtedly come with a berth, and whipped themselves into a frenzy.

Then they will climb behind the wheel of a 3,500-pound stock car and wield it like an angry sword.

There is no strategy this week that will protect your lineup. Spread the money around—avoid the very bottom of the grid because they will have shown that their engines are not as strong as the competition’s—and do not exhaust racers in Pick ‘Em games who will be more predictable later in the season.

Good luck and may God Bless.

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GEICO 500

Victoria Beaver Restrictor-plate Superspeedways, Talladega SuperSpeedway Leave a comment

Four times per year, this writer is tempted to throw his hands in the air and refuse to write a preview about Talladega SuperSpeedway or Daytona International Speedway.

One can look at all the data possible and still watch as their fantasy roster is wiped out by the smallest mistake by the most experienced or novice driver. The Daytona 500 is a prime example. On lap 19, Chase Elliott spun by himself after Carl Edwards robbed the air from his spoiler. The rookie started on the pole and maintained a position in the top 10 up till that point.

Ah, but picks must be made, contests must be played, and life goes merrily along until NASCAR decides to make all four restrictor-plate, superspeedway races into exhibition events.

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