Pennsylvania 400

The Pennsylvania 400 rounds out three consecutive flat track races.

Half of last week’s top-10 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway finished that well at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Three of them were coming off sub-10th-place results the previous week at Kentucky Speedway—a newly paved and reconfigured track that threw a lot of curve balls—and were able to regain a little momentum.

That will now get carried over to the tricky triangle of Pocono Raceway. At 2.5 miles in length with one corner inspired by Indy, these two tracks (and specifically these two races) are among the closest comparatives on the circuit. The one-mile track in New Hampshire, Phoenix International Raceway, the three-quarter-mile Richmond International Raceway, and half-mile Martinsville Speedway can also be used to deepen the data pool.

For the moment, ignore the New Hampshire 301 and focus on the Axalta 400 that was run at Pocono seven weeks ago. Only three drivers have top-10s to their credit in the two latest 2.5-mile, flat track races and they should be considered favorites. Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Joey Logano have emerged as flat track aces. Several others have sweeps of the top 15, or a legitimate reason they stumbled in one of the two races, and they could be good differentiators for players who are in leagues with competitors slavishly devoted to statistics.

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Axalta We Paint Winners 400

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One thing fantasy players cannot complain this week is a lack of uniqueness where Pocono Raceway is concerned.

If a three-turned track with three distinctive radiuses to the corners, three distinctive degrees of banking, and three distinctive lengths to the straightaways is not enough differentiate this track, then there is no pleasing critics. Pocono is one of the longest tracks on the circuit and with its flat corners and tight turns, it takes the greatest amount of time to complete a lap there.

The longest straight leads to the corner with the most banking. From there through turn three, the straights get shorter and the banking less steep so that the effect is like a corkscrew. Eventually drivers have to tiptoe through the final turn and then strain their engines to beat the competition to the next left-hand swerve.

It can take a while to adjust to Pocono, but once that happens, it is possible to string some strong runs together. Sweeping Victory Lane in a season is not uncommon. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was the latest driver to do so in 2014. Before his sweep, Denny Hamlin won back-to-back summer and spring events in 2009/2010, as well as famously doing so in during his rookie season. Harvick finished second in consecutive races in 2014/2015.

Four-, five-, or even six-week streaks of top-fives and -10s are not rare and when they are broken up, it is typically because of pit strategy that goes awry.

One reason for this is because Pocono’s two races are held close to one another on the schedule that track conditions and momentum does not change appreciably. Only six races get run between the waving of the checkered flag over the Pocono 400 and the green on the Pennsylvania 400 and two of those are held on flat tracks.

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